Monarchs Je, All Right

Kwa kushangaza, kwa kushangaza, kushangaza; akaonekana monarchs ni nyuma (lakini si ushirikiano staring Julianne Moore). sawa, si kwamba ajabu; I pretty much alitabiri hii itakuwa kesi mwezi Machi mwaka jana wakati kila mtu alikuwa akikimbia kuzunguka hofu kwa sababu vipepeo hit wakati wote chini (tangu kuhesabu kuanza katika 1993). Kweli naamini alisema “Nami bet kitu chochote juu ya idadi ya watu kufanya ahueni katika miaka ijayo…”. Hivyo, vipi kuhusu kitu chochote = bia, na ambao kununua?

Labda Mimi kuadhimisha kidogo mapema. Labda habari si nzuri kwamba siwezi kukimbia ushindi Lap bado kabisa, lakini tafiti awali kuangalia kama wakazi overwintering kuwa mara mbili mwaka huu. Hiyo kuanza nzuri, lakini bado tuna si hit 18 mwaka wastani (si statistic kuvutia). Lakini si misread nia yangu – Mimi si kudai mwaka huu moja kwa namna fulani umeonyesha kupungua insignificant. Ni inaweza kuwa au wasiwe, wote sisi kweli unaweza kusema ni kwamba ni tu hatua nyingine data. Ukweli ni kwamba CCD yetu ni dhaifu sana na kuna sababu kama vile hali ya hewa kwamba kuunda kishindo mkubwa wa kosa. Ni pia karibu haiwezekani extrapolate kutokana na kile data kidogo sisi kufanya na. So is the monarch a very good “canary in the coal mine”?

I would say poor at best. How is one insect species that roosts in massive singular colonies a good indicator of our ecosystem? Ndiyo, they migrate from all reaches of North America, but their recent high mortality rates have nothing to do with the lives they lived outside of Mexico. Perhaps if millions of butterflies died of some strange toxin we could heed the warning, but such was not the case. Those poor monarchs are at the mercy of winter storms that are likely to become more frequent with a warming climate. So can we say that climate change is negatively impacting these animals? Turns out we can’t, at least not yet. If this were to be so then our data is telling us that the 1996-1997 season was a really healthy one where clouds of pollution parted and nature rejoiced. Did the 2010 season then become a post apocalyptic blade-runner-esque world where acid rain melted the orange off of butterfly wings? Clearly not. Neither climate nor pollution were drastically different in those years. The monarchs just had a really good year followed by some really bad ones. Maybe we should just find a better canary if we’re trying to blow the whistle on global warming or deforestation.

As a last thought here is a video from the above story. Just as you’d expect, it’s over dramatized and a bit hilarious.