令人震惊, 令人震惊, 令人惊讶; 在 monarchs are back (但并非共同地盯着朱丽安·摩尔). 行, 这是不是很神奇; I pretty much predictedthis would be the case last March when everyone was running around terrified because the butterflies hit an all time low (since counting started在 1993). 其实，我相信我说的 “我将赌注押在了人群做任何事情，在多年的恢复来…”. 所以, how about anything = beer, and who’s buying?
Perhaps I am celebrating a bit early. Maybe the news isn’t so good that I can run a victory lap quite yet, but preliminary surveys look like the overwintering populations have doubled this year. That’s a pretty good start, but we still haven’t hit the 18 year average (not an impressive statistic). But don’t misread my intentions – I’m not claiming this one year somehow has proven the decline insignificant. It may or may not be, all we can really say is that it’s just another data point. The fact is that our dataset is very weak and there are factors such as local weather that create massive margins of error. It’s also nearly impossible to extrapolate from what little data we do have. So is the monarch a very good “canary in the coal mine”?
I would say poor at best. How is one insect species that roosts in massive singular colonies a good indicator of our ecosystem? 是, they migrate from all reaches of North America, but their recent high mortality rates have nothing to do with the lives they lived outside of Mexico. Perhaps if millions of butterflies died of some strange toxin we could heed the warning, but such was not the case. Those poor monarchs are at the mercy of winter storms that are likely to become more frequent with a warming climate. So can we say that climate change is negatively impacting these animals? Turns out we can’t, at least not yet. If this were to be so then our data is telling us that the1996-1997 seasonwas a really healthy one where clouds of pollution parted and nature rejoiced. Did the 2010 season then become a post apocalyptic blade-runner-esque world where acid rain melted the orange off of butterfly wings? Clearly not. Neither climate nor pollution were drastically different in those years. The monarchs just had a really good year followed by some really bad ones. Maybe we should just find a better canary if we’re trying to blow the whistle on global warming or deforestation.
As a last thought here is a video from the above story. Just as you’d expect, it’s over dramatized and a bit hilarious.
我做了, 这听起来像它是由萨拉·佩林. 其实, 我碰到过这样的Meta分析 22,000 horoscopes over onInformation is Beautiful. 它的壮观 – 但我会在这里运行了几个点:
从这些 22,000 八字来了一个图表中最常见的词 (底部), 90% of which happen to be exactly the same regardless of your sign. David McCandless also generated a meta prediction using these most common words. It goes something like this.
“Ready? 确定? Whatever the situation or secret moment enjoy everything a lot. Feel able to absolutely care. Expect nothing else. Keep making love. Family and friends matter. The world is life, fun and energy. Maybe hard. Or easy. Taking exactly enough is best. Help and talk to others. Change your mind and a better mood comes along…“
Everyone, 希望, should know that horoscopes and astrology have always been steaming piles. Seeing the data like this just makes it that much easier to laugh in the face of wackiness. I also love McCandless’s interpretation of star traits. I’m a “gemini” (or at least was), and the most common words for me are “party, stay, issues and listen certainly”. Interpreted as “emotionally disturbed party animal who never says no”. Love it.
You might have also heard recently about thescandalous storyof wrong star assignments. As it turns out our earth wobbles slightly in orbit; meaning the stars are not exactly where they are in the night sky tonight as they were a few millennia ago when the zodiac was first derived. So if the stars mold who you are at birth then they do so based on where they are now and not 2,000 几年前. Surprise – many people should now be assigned to a new sign! Oooohscandal! The science of astrology didn’t even come close to predicting this (it greatly pained me to even mockingly call astrology science). But that’s OK it won’t perturb them, they are well adapt at dodging hard science and spinning BS, and have been doing so for hundreds of years. 早在 1781 astronomers threw a wrench at the heads of astrologers with the discovery of Uranus – and a generation later Neptune appeared on the scene. Oh don’t worry! Astrologers fudged their own numbers, whined about different “charts and systems” and snuck in two extra star signs to agree with the world as science understood it. 哦, and never mind the rest of the billion, billion stars and planets…
Yet, I can still hear a faint cry down the street here in Berkeley – someone slaps hand to head and exclaims “oh now it makes sense, I was a Taurus所有 along!”
You should go explore his blog and take a closer look at the analysis. 更妙的是, if you have a friend who loves their astrology, you should forward this in their direction.
红叶外水肿 3.3毫米
牡丹 3.1毫米
针叶树 (链接图片来源)
Stigmella悖论 (链接图片来源)
(拉班德里亚, 1994)
(黑子, 1987)
